Measles Vaccine Math

Executive summary

One person has died from measles in the last 10 years. Is this a sign that everyone who has not been infected or vaccinated for measles should get vaccinated?

According to all health authorities the answer is yes.

According to your friendly neighborhood misinformation superspreader (me), the answer is a big NO.

Why? Because you’re more likely to die or be seriously injured for life from these shots than benefit from them.

Here’s how the math works out today

Today, the math is obvious: even if the vaccine is 100% effective, we’d save 1 life every 10 years. But in 10 years, injecting 3M kids a year, even with a 1 in 1M death rate from the vaccine (which would be unbelievably safe), we’d have 30 deaths from the vaccine and 1 from the disease. So it’s a no-brainer today to avoid the shots. The same argument can be made for morbidity since if we just look at autism alone, there’s no question. But “science” isn’t able to make this very obvious association and none of the scientists are willing to be publicly challenged.

The math will be different 70 years from now. Should you get it then?

Let’s look at another scenario. Suppose we stop vaccinating kids tomorrow. Then in around 70 years, most everyone will be unvaccinated and we’ll probably have more measles deaths because the NIH will still never let people know about any early treatment with repurposed drugs.

So we should end up with somewhere around 450 deaths a year which is what it was before we had a measles vaccine.

So you have roughly a 1 in a million chance of dying from the measles each year, but your probability of dying from the shot, assuming it is AMAZINGLY safe at 1 death per million, is about the same. It’s a wash.

Generally, you only want to risk a medical intervention when you are absolutely certain that the benefits way outweigh the risks.

Is the MMR vaccine safe?

The health authorities are nearly completely blind to any of the risks associated with any vaccine.

For example, there is plenty of evidence that COVID vaccine kills around 1 person per 1,000 injected, yet the vaccine is deemed as perfectly safe with not a single death ascribed to any of the mRNA vaccines.

That doesn’t inspire confidence in the medical community that they cannot detect a signal of 1 death per 1,000.

There is a precautionary principle of medicine that says basically if something is unknown, the safest thing to do is assume the worst.

VAERS tells us there were 92 deaths in the last 10 years associated with the MMR vaccine. That’s just 9 deaths a year, i.e., around 3 deaths per M kids vaccinated a year.

But VAERS is at least 40 times under reported so to be safe, let’s pick an underreporting factor (URF) of 100. So, at worst 900 potential deaths a year on around 3M vaccinations a year (since 3M new babies are born a year a year and 99% of them get the shots). So we’re looking at up to 300 deaths per M vaccinations which is 300X worse than we assumed in the calculations above.

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